From Pilots to Production: What 8 Industry Experts Predict for Insurance in 2026

Digital Insurance gathered predictions from 8 industry leaders across workers' comp, life, P&C, AI/insurtech, cybersecurity, climate, auto, and emerging risks. Here's what they revealed—and what it means for your organization.

Eight experts. Eight predictions. Two clear signals:

Implementation is the imperative (8 out of 8)

Human expertise is gaining value, not losing it (7 out of 8)

This roundup covers what the experts are predicting for 2026 and there is a lot of consensus.

The experts quoted in this series aren't speculating about distant possibilities. They're describing changes already underway. The opportunity—and the urgency—is now.

With the definitive quote of the series, Hector Martinez of John Hancock captured this shift perfectly in his predictions article. The shift isn't just rhetorical—it's operational. And for leaders like you, it signals a clear imperative.

"The integration of AI and Gen AI technologies will transform the insurance landscape. What began as pilot projects will evolve into fully operational applications."

Hector Martinez, Head of John Hancock Insurance

Digital Insurance recently published its "Insurance Predictions for 2026" series—eight perspectives from leaders across the insurance ecosystem. From workers' compensation to emerging cyber risks, these experts offer a window into what's actually changing this year.

The predictions aren't theoretical. They're grounded in operational reality: AI tools moving out of innovation labs and into production systems, risk models being rebuilt for a climate that no longer matches historical patterns, and a talent landscape where human expertise is becoming more valuable—not less—as automation accelerates.

Here's what the experts are saying, and what it means for your organization.

The AI Imperative: From Experimentation to Operational Reality

If there's one theme that cuts across the Digital Insurance predictions, it's this: 2026 is the year AI stops being a pilot project and starts being how work gets done.

Hector Martinez of John Hancock puts it directly: AI is moving from experimentation to "fully operational applications." This isn't about future potential—it's about current deployment across underwriting, advisor tools, and customer experience.

"Carriers that strategically blend technology with personalized human oversight will drive meaningful industry change. AI adoption will accelerate and bring greater operational efficiency."

CJ Warne, Executive, State Farm Innovation Group

State Farm's CJ Warne reinforces this in his prediction, noting that AI is evolving "from a back-office tool into an interactive resource." But his key insight isn't about the technology—it's about how carriers use it. The winners won't be those with the most sophisticated AI; they'll be those who "strategically blend technology with personalized human oversight."

What This Means for Document Processing

For underwriting teams, the shift from pilot to production has direct implications. The organizations moving fastest are those that have figured out how to automate document processing without sacrificing the human judgment that risk assessment requires.

The pattern we're seeing: AI handles the extraction and structuring of data from complex documents—ACORD forms, loss runs, statements of value—while underwriters focus on analyzing that data and making decisions. It's not automation versus expertise. It's automation enabling expertise.

The Risk Landscape: Climate, Cyber, and Cascading Exposure

Three of the eight predictions focus on risks that are fundamentally different from what insurers faced even five years ago: climate patterns that no longer match historical data, cyber threats targeting the weakest links in supply chains, and emerging exposures that traditional models can't capture.

Climate Data Is Becoming Obsolete

"The escalating impacts of climate change are happening now, rendering the small sample of historical flood loss observations even more obsolete. The strategic imperative for carriers is to embed consistent, global, and climate-adjusted data at the heart of their operations."

Dr. Oliver Wing, Chief Scientific and Product Officer, Fathom

Dr. Oliver Wing of Fathom makes a stark observation in his prediction: historical flood data is "becoming obsolete." The implication? Insurers relying on backward-looking models are pricing risk based on a climate that no longer exists.

His prescription: "embed consistent, global, and climate-adjusted data at the heart of operations"—across underwriting decisions, portfolio management, and risk pricing. This requires both better data and better tools to process that data at scale.

Cybersecurity: The Downstream Effect

"Cybercriminals don't like this. They prefer low-effort, repeatable attacks. In 2026, they'll find them by moving down market."

Eder Ribeiro, Director of Global Incident Response, TransUnion

TransUnion's Eder Ribeiro highlights a shift in cybercriminal behavior: as large enterprises harden their defenses, attackers are moving "down market" to less-defended businesses. The result? Growing demand for personal cyber insurance from consumers and small business owners who are now in the crosshairs.

Third-Party Risk: The Board-Level Concern

"Even well-secured organizations will find themselves exposed through their less secure partners. Threat actors increasingly target external software providers and cloud platforms."

Alton Kizziah, CEO, Beazley Security

Perhaps the most urgent warning comes from Alton Kizziah of Beazley Security, also in the cybersecurity predictions. His message: your security is only as strong as your weakest vendor. "Even well-secured organizations will find themselves exposed through their less secure partners."

Kizziah predicts third-party risk will escalate to "board-level governance concerns," with organizations investing in Zero Trust architectures and supply chain resilience. For insurers underwriting these risks, the challenge is assessing not just a company's own security posture, but the security of their entire vendor ecosystem.

The Human Advantage: Why Advisors Are Gaining Ground

Here's the counterintuitive finding in the Digital Insurance predictions: as AI capabilities accelerate, human advisors are becoming more valuable, not less.

"Independent agents now place 62% of all P&C business—up from 58% a decade ago. The more complex risk becomes, the greater market share independent agents will capture going forward."

Luke Bills, President of Independent Agent Distribution, Liberty Mutual Insurance

Luke Bills of Liberty Mutual presents data that defies the "AI will replace agents" narrative: independent agents now control 62% of all P&C business, up from 58% a decade ago. His explanation? "As business and personal risks grow increasingly intricate, trusted advisors become even more valuable."

This aligns with what we see in document processing: the goal isn't to remove humans from the workflow, but to remove the manual work that keeps humans from doing what they're actually good at. When underwriters spend less time extracting data from loss runs and more time assessing complex risks, everyone wins—the carrier, the agent, and the policyholder.

Bills' prediction also carries a strategic implication: "The carrier-agent-customer value chain will look very different in 10 years." AI will reshape operations, but the human connection remains the differentiator.

The Customer Experience Shift: Digital Platforms as Central Infrastructure

"Digital platforms will become a central pillar of support, providing clarity about injured workers' role in the claims process. These systems will enable injured workers to upload documents, e-sign materials, arrange reimbursements, and receive detailed overviews of claims status."

Beth Robertson, Managing Director, Keynova Group LLC

Beth Robertson of Keynova Group focuses on workers' compensation, but her prediction applies broadly: digital platforms are becoming "a central pillar of support" for customer interactions. The shift isn't just about efficiency—it's about meeting customers where they are and providing transparency they've come to expect.

Her prediction includes a detail worth noting: these platforms can address "both pre- and post-claims events, offering risk management training and monitoring of safety indicators." The implication? Insurance is moving from reactive (pay claims when they happen) to proactive (prevent claims from happening).

The Auto Insurance Adaptation

"As electric vehicle and autonomous vehicle adoption deepens, the insurance industry faces a pivotal moment to understand and adapt to the distinct risk profiles these vehicles present."

Xiaohui Lu, VP Global Business Development, LexisNexis Risk Solutions

Xiaohui Lu of LexisNexis highlights a specific domain where adaptation is urgent: electric and autonomous vehicles. Higher repair complexity, evolving driver behaviors, and fundamentally different risk profiles require "refined underwriting models, updated rating structures, and adapted claims handling strategies."

The message: insurers who wait for EV and AV to become mainstream before adapting will find themselves scrambling. The time to build these capabilities is now.

What This Means for Your Organization

Synthesizing these eight predictions reveals a clear pattern: 2026 is an implementation year, not an exploration year. The gap between leaders and laggards is widening—and the differentiator isn't access to technology. It's how organizations operationalize it.

Leaders in 2026 Will:

1. Move AI from pilot to production. Martinez and Warne both emphasize that the experimentation phase is ending. Leaders are already deploying AI in underwriting, claims, and customer experience—not just testing it.
2. Invest in both technology and talent. Bills' data on independent agent market share tells a story: human expertise is becoming more valuable, not less. The winning formula combines AI efficiency with human judgment.
3. Update risk models for current reality. Wing's warning about obsolete climate data applies beyond flood risk. Leaders are rebuilding models based on forward-looking data, not historical patterns.
4. Treat third-party risk as a strategic priority. Kizziah's prediction about supply chain vulnerabilities isn't just for cyber underwriters. Leaders are assessing the security posture of their entire vendor ecosystem.
5. Build digital platforms that meet customers where they are. Robertson's workers' comp prediction reflects a broader truth: leaders are creating self-service capabilities and transparency that customers now expect.

Laggards Will:

• Continue treating AI as a future consideration rather than a present imperative
• Underinvest in change management and workforce development
• Rush deployment without adequate governance—or delay deployment indefinitely
• Focus solely on cost reduction rather than value creation
• Rely on historical data while risk patterns fundamentally shift

The SortSpoke Perspective

At SortSpoke, we work with carriers and MGAs navigating exactly the transition these experts describe—moving AI from pilot projects to production systems. Three themes from this series resonate particularly strongly with what we're seeing:

"The pattern across these predictions is clear: 2026 isn't about whether to use AI—it's about how to operationalize it while keeping your experts in control. The organizations winning right now aren't choosing between technology and talent. They're investing in both."

Jasper Li, CEO, SortSpoke

1. Human-in-the-Loop Is Non-Negotiable. Luke Bills' 62% market share statistic isn't an anomaly—it's a signal. As risk complexity increases, human judgment becomes more valuable, not less. The AI implementations that scale are those designed to augment expertise, not replace it. That's why we built human-in-the-loop review into the core of our platform: AI extracts the data, your team makes the decisions.
2. Meet Customers Where They Work. Beth Robertson's prediction about digital platforms becoming "central pillars of support" mirrors what we hear from underwriting leaders: they don't want another portal to log into. They want document AI that works within their existing workflows—their email, their core systems, their familiar tools. That's the embeddable architecture we've prioritized.
3. Implementation Beats Experimentation. Hector Martinez and CJ Warne both emphasize that pilots are becoming production systems. The organizations still "exploring" AI are falling behind those already deploying. For document processing specifically, the question isn't whether to automate—it's whether you'll lead the transition or scramble to catch up.

Conclusion: The Predictions, Summarized

Digital Insurance's 2026 predictions paint a picture of an industry at an inflection point. The technology is ready. The market is demanding change. The question is whether your organization will lead, follow, or fall behind.

Explore the Full Predictions Series

This roundup synthesizes insights from Digital Insurance's "Insurance Predictions for 2026" series.

Read the full Digital Insurance predictions series →

Read each expert's full perspective: